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World Meteorological Organization predicts 60 percent chance of La Nina's cooling impact
The
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Wednesday issued a new update
forecasting a 60% likelihood of La Nina's cooling impact emerging towards the
end of 2024.
La
Nina, characterized by the cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central
and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to develop following the
current neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, the WMO said in
a statement.
It
added that the probability of La Nina forming is forecast at 55% from September
to November 2024 and is anticipated to rise to 60% from October 2024 through
February 2025. Meanwhile, the chance of El Nino redeveloping during this period
is considered negligible.
The
phenomenon of La Nina often brings about cooling impacts on global climate,
contrasting with the warming effects typically associated with El Nino, the
update explained. While La Nina events can influence weather patterns such as
rainfall and temperatures, their impacts vary based on factors such as
intensity, duration, and interactions with other climate drivers.
"Since
June 2023 we have seen an extended streak of exceptional global land and sea
surface temperature," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. "Even
if a short-term cooling La Niña event does emerge, it will not change the
long-term trajectory of rising global temperatures due to heat-trapping
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."
According
to the WMO, the past nine years have marked the warmest on record, even amid a
multi-year La Nina period that lasted from 2020 to early 2023. The most recent
El Nino event, which emerged in June 2023 and peaked between November 2023 and
January 2024, was "one of the five strongest on record" before
dissipating -- although some impacts continued.
"For
the past three months, neutral conditions have prevailed – neither El Nino nor
La Nina. But we have still seen widespread extreme weather conditions,
including intense heat and devastating rainfall," Saulo said.
She
said seasonal forecasts for El Nino and La Nina and the associated impacts on
the climate patterns globally are an "important tool" to inform early
warnings and early action.
Image
Credit: © AA
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