Spain secures jet fuel supply through May but warns of summer risks

International

Domestic production stabilises market for now while airlines across Europe cut capacity

Spain’s leading refiners expect jet fuel supply to remain stable through May, but warn of potential shortages in the summer if geopolitical tensions persist. According to industry sources cited by Spanish media, companies are already working to secure volumes for June as demand rises ahead of the peak travel season.

Firms including Repsol, Moeve and BP are increasing production to meet expected demand. The situation unfolds as Spain prepares for a record tourism year, aiming to surpass 100 million international visitors. Any disruption in fuel availability could directly affect flight capacity during the busiest months.

Strong domestic production supports stability

Spain’s relatively high level of domestic refining capacity is currently acting as a buffer. The country produces around 80 per cent of the jet fuel it consumes, giving it a stronger position compared to many other European markets.

Repsol CEO Josu Jon Imaz has warned that the ongoing conflict could lead to fuel shortages across Europe, particularly in aviation. At the same time, government representatives emphasise Spain’s resilience within the European context. Ecological Transition Minister Sara Aagesen described the country’s position as comparatively favourable due to its production capacity.

At EU level, European Commission officials are taking a more cautious view. Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen has indicated that even in the event of a rapid de-escalation, disruptions to fuel markets could continue for several months. The Commission is monitoring reserves and may introduce mechanisms to redistribute fuel between member states if needed.

According to the International Energy Agency, Europe currently holds aviation fuel reserves equivalent to roughly six weeks of demand.

Airlines across Europe adjust to rising costs

Airlines in several European markets have already begun adjusting operations in response to higher fuel costs and supply uncertainty. The Lufthansa Group has announced plans to cut around 20,000 flights between April and October, joining carriers such as KLM and SAS in scaling back capacity.

In contrast, Spanish airlines have so far maintained their schedules and are planning to expand capacity for the summer season. This approach is supported by domestic fuel availability and financial hedging strategies designed to mitigate cost increases.

Industry representatives nevertheless point to growing pressure. Javier Gándara, president of the Spanish airline association ALA, noted that while supply is currently secure, rising costs are already affecting airlines. “What is clear is there is a cost increase for companies, and it is unclear which part can be covered by their margins and which by price hikes,” he said.

The coming months will therefore be shaped by the interplay between stable short-term supply, ongoing geopolitical risks and the continued recovery of European air travel demand.