Middle East tourism set for sharp 2026 decline before strong long-term recovery - Get updated on what's happening in tourism!

Travel & Tourism in the Middle East is facing a significant short-term setback as geopolitical tensions disrupt airspace and international travel flows. According to new forecasts from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), the region will be the only one worldwide to record a decline in Travel & Tourism GDP in 2026.

WTTC expects the sector’s economic contribution to fall from $386 billion in 2025 to $330 billion this year, a contraction of 14.5 percent. Beyond the immediate disruption, however, the organisation sees a markedly different long-term trajectory, forecasting that the Middle East will become the fastest-growing Travel & Tourism region globally over the coming decade.

Aviation disruption weighs on 2026 performance

The current downturn reflects the Middle East’s exposure to geopolitical conflict and resulting disruptions to aviation. The region is one of the world’s most important air transport hubs, handling around 14 percent of international passengers – approximately one in every seven international travellers.

Changes to airspace availability and travel flows therefore have consequences extending well beyond the countries directly affected by conflict.

“The Middle East is facing a challenging period, and Travel & Tourism is often among the first sectors to feel the impact of geopolitical disruption,” said Gloria Guevara, President & CEO of WTTC. “But history repeatedly shows that our sector is remarkably resilient, and few regions have demonstrated that resilience more clearly than the Middle East.”

Tourism economy could reach $605 billion by 2036

Despite the expected decline in 2026, WTTC forecasts strong growth over the following decade. Travel & Tourism GDP in the Middle East is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 6.3 percent between 2026 and 2036.

If that forecast materialises, the sector will contribute around $605 billion to the regional economy by 2036.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Qatar are expected to be the principal drivers of this expansion. Together, the four countries generated $272 billion in Travel & Tourism GDP in 2025. By 2036, their combined contribution is forecast to reach $435 billion, an increase of more than $163 billion.

Saudi Arabia and UAE lead regional transformation

Saudi Arabia remains central to the Middle East’s tourism expansion. Travel & Tourism currently accounts for 14.1 percent of the country’s GDP, while international visitor spending is expected to more than double over the next decade.

Investment continues to play a major role. Saudi Travel & Tourism investment increased by 19.4 percent in 2025, supported by Vision 2030, regulatory reforms and a pipeline of large tourism developments.

The UAE, meanwhile, represents one of the region’s most established tourism economies. Travel & Tourism contributes 11.9 percent of GDP and supports 13.6 percent of total employment. International visitor spending amounts to almost $57 billion.

Oman and Qatar add to growth prospects

Oman’s Travel & Tourism economy is forecast to expand from $7.9 billion to $12 billion by 2036 as investment in tourism infrastructure and destination development continues.

Qatar also remains highly dependent on international tourism revenues. According to WTTC, visitor spending accounts for 94.1 percent of the country’s services exports, one of the highest tourism export concentrations in the region.

Across the four markets, governments continue to invest in airports, transport connections, accommodation, visitor experiences and destination development as tourism assumes a larger role in economic diversification strategies.

WTTC expects resilience to drive recovery

WTTC argues that previous crises demonstrate the tourism sector’s ability to recover rapidly once disruption subsides, particularly when governments and businesses coordinate policy, communication and investment.

“The governments across this region have made long-term commitments to Travel & Tourism through investment, connectivity, infrastructure, and economic diversification. Those foundations remain firmly in place,” Guevara said.

While the immediate outlook remains heavily influenced by geopolitical developments, WTTC expects these structural investments to underpin the recovery. “The long-term picture is clear: the Middle East is set to be the world's fastest-growing Travel & Tourism region,” Guevara added.

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