Global tourism growth slows to 0.4% in first half of 2026

International

UN Tourism reports 690 million international arrivals as conflict in the Middle East, higher travel costs and inflation weigh on demand

International tourism remained just above last year’s level during the first half of 2026, but growth lost considerable momentum as geopolitical tensions and rising costs affected travel demand. According to the latest World Tourism Barometer from UN Tourism, international tourist arrivals increased by 0.4% between January and June compared with the same period in 2025.

Around 690 million tourists travelled internationally during the six months, approximately three million more than a year earlier. However, the figures show a marked slowdown during the period: arrivals increased by 2% in the first quarter before declining by 1% in the second.

June arrivals fall by 3%

The weakness became particularly visible towards the end of the reporting period. International arrivals fell by 3% globally in June.

Western Europe recorded a 6% decline during the month, partly attributed to a heatwave in some destinations. South-East Asia registered 5% fewer arrivals amid weaker demand from Asian source markets, geopolitical tensions, disruption to air connections through the Middle East and higher travel costs.

Parts of Oceania were also affected by Typhoon Sinlaku during the second quarter, with arrivals down 6% in June.

“The latest data shows a sector absorbing real pressure and finding a way forward. Tourism has not stopped growing, but that growth is fragile,” said UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais.

Africa and Europe outperform global average

Performance varied considerably between regions. Africa recorded the strongest growth in the first half of the year at 4%, followed by Europe at 3% and the Americas at 2%.

Asia and the Pacific grew by 1%, but international arrivals remained 11% below their 2019 level. North-East Asia increased by 3%, while South Asia declined by 5% and South-East Asia by 1% compared with the first half of 2025.

The sharpest contraction occurred in the Middle East, where international arrivals fell by 22% as the region was directly affected by conflict.

Air traffic disruptions began to ease during May and June following the announcement of a ceasefire, allowing some routes to reopen. UN Tourism nevertheless describes the recovery in traveller confidence as uneven.

UN Tourism cuts 2026 growth forecast

The weaker first-half performance and continuing geopolitical uncertainty have prompted UN Tourism to revise its outlook for the full year.

International tourist arrivals are now expected to grow by between 1% and 2% in 2026. At the beginning of the year, the organisation had forecast growth of between 3% and 4%.

Much will depend on geopolitical developments and their impact on oil prices, inflation and transport costs. Against this background, UN Tourism expects travellers to remain price-conscious and increasingly look for destinations closer to home or choose domestic trips.

The first-half figures therefore point to a global tourism market that continues to expand, but at a substantially slower pace and with increasingly pronounced differences between regions.